The head and shoulders pattern is formed when a stock's price rises to a peak and then falls back to where it began. The price then rises above the previous peak, forming the "head," before falling to the initial bottom. The stock price then rises to roughly the same level as the formation's initial peak before falling.
The head and shoulders pattern is believed to be one of the best indicators of upcoming trend changes. It is one of a handful of prominent patterns that signal, to a greater or lesser extent, that an upward trend is about to end.
How to Determine the Pattern of the Head and Shoulders
Four components make up a head and shoulders pattern:
After a long period of increasing, the price reaches a peak and then declines.
The price rises to a second peak that is significantly higher than the initial peak, and then declines.
The price increases once more, but only to the level of the initial peak. It then begins to decline once more.
The neckline, which is formed by the intersection of two peaks or valleys.
First and third peaks represent the shoulders, while the second peak represents the head. The neckline is the dividing line between the first and second troughs of a garment.
The antithesis of a head and shoulders chart is an inverse shouldershead and shoulders chart, also known as a head and shoulders bottom. It is the opposite of the head-and-shoulders bottom, which is used to forecast an uptrend change. This pattern is observed when the following occur with a security's price:
The price falls to a low point before rising again.
The price falls below the previous minimum before rising again.
The price decreases once more, but not to the level of the second trough.
After the last trough is formed, the price rises toward the resistance (the neckline) that is close to the previous troughs' peaks.
What Can Be Learned From the Head and Shoulders Pattern?
The head and shoulders pattern indicates that a reversal may occur. Traders believe that three peaks and valleys with a larger peak in the middle indicate that a stock's price will begin to decline. The neckline is where traders who anticipate a price decline begin to sell.
The pattern also indicates that the new downward trend is likely to persist until the right shoulder is broken, which occurs when prices rise above the right peak.
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