Analysis of the gold price: Gold Price Vulnerable Following Failure to Protect Monthly Opening Range

Talking Points on the Gold Price

In an effort to recover from the loss following the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, the price of gold has recovered from a new monthly low ($1643). However, if it fails to hold the initial range for October, it may find it difficult to maintain the recovery from the annual low ($1615).

The price of gold is unstable after failing to hold its monthly opening range.

The 50-Day SMA ($1711)'s negative slope appears to be repeating the market action from August, and the precious metal may drop further in the coming days as Treasury rates climb to new yearly highs.

As the Federal Reserve continues to pursue its current strategy for combating inflation, expectations for higher US interest rates appear to be weighing on the price of gold. Bullion may encounter additional challenges before the next Fed interest rate decision on November 2 as it puts pressure on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to pursue a highly restrictive policy.

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The FOMC may provide hawkish forward guidance for the remainder of the year as the central bank attempts to control inflation, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, which presently forecasts a higher than 90% chance of another 75bp rate increase amid ongoing price growth in the United States.

The recovery from the annual low ($1615) may be given up if gold is unable to hold the opening range for October. Gold may continue to track the negative slope in the 50-Day SMA ($1711) as it struggles to remain above the moving average.

After failing to hold above the 50-Day SMA ($1713), gold is currently trading at a new monthly low ($1643), and the precious metal may continue to follow the moving average's downward slope as it did in August.

The Fibonacci overlap at $1601 (38.2% expansion) to $1618 (50% retracement) must be closed below in order to put it on the radar. A break below $1584 (78.6% retracement) puts the April 2020 low ($1568) in play.

A climb over the $1690 (61.8% retracement) to $1695 (61.8% expansion) region would increase the likelihood of another test of the moving average, but failure to close below the $1648 (50% expansion) zone would result in range-bound conditions for the gold price.

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